Cope or Hope?

• BNB (Fox): The newsletter's short setup hit entry at 606.97 and nuked down to 586.55, a 3.36% unleveraged move to the downside.

@abullish

Week 121 brought a flurry of wins before the market turned 180 on us; all purchases and sales are called live in the Telegram channel, per usual!

• PLTR $91 option calls for 3/28 went to 137.81%+

• TSLA $260 option calls for 3/28 went to 84.07%+

• NNE $31 option calls for 3/28 went to 114.29%+

• DDOG $105 option calls for 3/28 went for 75.82%+

• NOW $860 option calls for 3/28 went for 132.17%+

• PANW $185 option calls for 3/28 went for 15%+

• ZM $79 option calls for 4/4 went to 163.16%+

• AVGO $200 option calls went to 25% +

• TWLO $200 option calls for 4/4 went to 122.89%+

• AMD $110 option calls for 4/4 went to 224.48%+

• GOOGL $170 option calls for 4/4 went for 104.35%+

• BIDU $99 option calls for 4/4 went for 95.48%+

Week 122 so far:

• AAPL $225 option calls for 4/4 went for 126.67%+

• The other positions are still being played out; tune into next week’s newsletter to see how they ended up!

Monthly Call: 

• In early March, we recommended getting long gasoline instead of heating oil. Gasoline was trading at around $0 and is now at a $1 premium per barrel. That is an upside of 100 pips for retail trading via CFD accounts. For institutional clients, the netting of margins means this translates into a +100% gain. 

Why doesn’t the news matter?

We humans love understanding how things work—it's in our nature. Because of that, we're always looking for a "why?" in everything.

That's why, whenever there's a big move in the market, people ask, "Why?"

Now, the average trader will look to the news or Twitter to figure out what's happening. This is the normal reaction. The only issue is that the average trader loses money. A part of why that is is the reliance on news to make trading or investing decisions.

News outlets are not run by professional traders, at least not ones that make good money. Their opinions are much more likely to be those of the average Joe, who once again loses.

When you get a piece of news, it is very quickly “Priced In,” and the market moves to reflect the change in conditions. If a piece of news is really bullish and the market agrees that it is bullish, it'll probably pump before you even get to read half the headline, let alone give you time to enter after you read about it 3 hours later.

So even when the price does move based on news, you will be too late to act on it. Suppose the market does not immediately react to news. In that case, it is likely considered unimportant, or not relevant enough to change market conditions (i.e., a bearish chart isn't going to pump off minor bullish news.)

News does not give you an edge. In other words, it's not worth trading.

If you paid attention, you might remember something very important I mentioned briefly: if the market agrees. At the end of the day, the market decides how to react to news. What may seem like bullish news can still dump price (Trump speaking at the Bitcoin Conference), while bearish news can form bottoms (FTX blowup).

The trick I want to teach you is not to look for a news headline to justify the chart, but instead use your chart to come up with headlines. The dotcom bubble and the 2008 financial crisis, the S&P was already distributing (topping out) before the headlines hit.

You can always stay ahead of the news by learning to understand market structure and basic technical analysis. Once you learn this, you'll find that news only acts as a catalyst. 

Let's use an example: Say the Pidgeon coin has resistance at $100, and its price is $90. Things are looking a bit bullish. Suddenly, news came out that Pidgeon would make buybacks for the coin. The price will pump, but only to around $100, where we have resistance. The chart was already set up for a move to $100, but the news expedited this process.

Can news result in much more major moves? Yes. But those, too, will respect technical analysis. See the chart example below:

The price reclaims a prior support level and is trending up. ANKR announces a partnership with Microsoft. Price pumps, but only to the major resistance before returning to normal

I hope this explains why I say the news does not matter. Enjoy your newfound knowledge!

TL;DR: Learn how to read the chart, because by the time you hear the news, it's already too late to do anything useful with it.

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