Are We Back Yet?

September 05, 2023 • Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes

Macro Markets

It is quite an uneventful week ahead with no major data events. Last week, we got very important payroll numbers. Non-farm payrolls increased by 187K in August, per our forecast in the last newsletter. The estimate was at 170K, higher but still under the 200k level. The counts for June and July moved lower.

Average hourly earnings, a gauge of wage inflation, went up 0.2% for the month and 4.3% relative to a year ago. They were both below estimates, which is a good sign.

We did see the unemployment rate tick up to 3.8%, which is up significantly from July and is one of the highest prints in almost 14 months. The increase came as the labor force participation rate rose to 62.8%, the highest since February 2020, just before the pandemic lockdowns. The overall increase in labor size was around 736K.

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